Sales Analysis | Fasig-Tipton Summer Selected Horses of Racing Age: Hip 401

Hip 401- Harlan's Honor

2012 Filly, Harlan's Holiday/Indian Rush, Paramount Sales Agent II

SIRE: Harlan’s Holiday is a 1999 Thoroughbred stallion. He was euthanized in Argentina in 2013. Before his death he sired Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby, Arlington Classic and American Derby winner Willcox Inn, Cashcall Futurity winner Into Mischief, Natalma Stakes (CAN) winner Conquest Harlanate.

Harlan’s Holiday won the Hoover Stakes (6 furlongs), Cradle Stakes (1 1/16 mile), Iroquois Stakes (1 mile), Florida Derby (1 ⅛ mile) and Blue Grass Stakes (1 ⅛ mile) before finishing seventh in the 2002 Kentucky Derby. He went on to win the Pennsylvania Derby (1 ⅛ mile) and the Donn Handicap (1 ⅛ mile). Other notable performances include:

2nd- Breeders Futurity (1 1/16 mile)

2nd- Holy Bull (1 1/16 mile)

2nd- Fountain of Youth (1 1/16 mile)

4th- Preakness Stakes (1 3/16 mile)

4th- Cigar Mile (1 mile)

2nd- Dubai World Cup (1 ¼ mile)

2nd- Hollywood Gold Cup

Harlan’s Holiday’s foals tend to be early maturers and have some of their best seasons as two- and three-year olds. His foals aren’t huge monsters but are well built and solid. They have high withers. They have thick, large hips and a large stride.
DAM: Indian Rush is a stakes placed mare by Indian Charlie. She came second in the Finger Lakes Juvenile Fillies (6 furlongs). She has twenty-four starts with five first, six seconds and one thirds. She’s made $98,208 in her four year career.

WATCHMAKER ANYLSIS:

This 3-year-old stakes filly is by the deceased Harlan’s Holiday, from the stakes performing Indian Charlie mare Indian Rush, who herself is a full sister to a multiple stakes performer. What distinguishes this filly is she is a registered New York bred who really hasn’t yet taken advantage of that lucrative program, but she is already an open stakes winner. She won her debut last summer on the main track at Monmouth Park over straight maidens in decisive fashion, and then after showing good early speed in the Lynbrook Stakes at Belmont Park in what remains her only start to date against fellow New York breds, she returned to Monmouth, moved to turf and wired eight opponents in a four length romp in the Colleen Stakes. She also showed high early speed in the Selima Stakes in her penultimate 2-year-old start. In two starts this year, she competed in turf sprint stakes, and finished third in both. But she still has her second-level allowance condition available to her, as well as the option to return to dirt if so desired.

Belmont Early Look | Retama Ruffian

Belmont Stakes (G1) 1 1/12M, Dirt, 3YO M 6/6/15

Horse Name	Trainer	Last Start, Distance, Track	Finish & Time
The Truth or Else	K. McPeek	Allowance Optional Claiming (Belmont Park) 1 1/16 miles	1st 1:43.27
Frammento	N. Zito	Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs)     1 ¼ miles	11th 2:03.02
Tale of Verve	D. Stewart	Preakness Stakes (Pimlico) 1 3/16 miles	2nd 1:58.46
American Pharoah	B. Baffert	Preakness Stakes (Pimlico) 1 3/16 miles	1st 1:58.46
Frosted	K. McLaughlin	Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs) 1 ¼ miles	4th 2:03.02
Madefromlucky	T. Pletcher	Peter Pan Stakes (Belmont Park) 1 ⅛ miles	1st 1:48.36
Carpe Diem	T. Pletcher	Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs) 1 ¼ miles	10th 2:03.02
Keen Ice	D. Romans	Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs) 1 ¼ miles	7th 2:03.02
Materiality	T. Pletcher	Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs) 1 ¼ miles	6th 2:03.02
Mubtaahij	M. De Kock	Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs) 1 ¼ miles	8th 2:03.02

The Truth or Else-  A well seasoned runner who has had twelve starts since June of last year. He’s won two of those, ran second once and third three times. He’s earned a total of $294,137. He finished third in the Champagne Stakes, Nashua Stakes, sixth in the Remsen Stakes, second in the Southwest Stakes, fourth in Rebel Stakes and seventh in the Pat Day Mile Stakes. He finished ahead of the other runners in an allowance optional claiming at Belmont Park on May 22nd.

Frammento- Frammento ran in eight races since October, in which he won one, came second once and finished third once. He’s earned a total of $139,700. He’s only win was his maiden, which took place at Keeneland going 1 1/16 miles. The best he’s come since then was a third place in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He also ran second and fourth in an allowance optional claiming, sixth in the Holy Bull Stakes, fourth in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and eleventh in the Kentucky Derby.

Tale of Verve- Tale of Verve had seven career starts. He came first in one of those, second in two, and third in two of them. He has earned a total of $354,640. It took him six tries to break his madien, finally accomplishing that at Keeneland on April 23, 2015. He also finished second in the Preakness.

American Pharoah- American Pharoah had seven career starts and won six of them. He’s earned a total of $3,730,300. He finished fifth in his maiden special weight. He won the Del Mar Futurity, FrontRunner Stakes, Rebel Stakes, Arkansas Derby, Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes.

Frosted- Frosted raced eight times. He finished first twice and second four times. He has earned a total of $936,800. He won his maiden, came second in the Remsen Stakes and Holy Bull Stakes. He finished fourth in the Fountain of Youth and the Kentucky Derby. He won the Wood Memorial.

Madefromlucky- Madefromlucky had eight career starts. He came first three times, second twice and third once. He has earned a total of $378,700. He won his maiden, an allowance optional claiming and the Peter Pan Stakes. He finished second in the Rebel Stakes and fourth in the Arkansas Derby.

Carpe Diem- Carpe Diem raced six times. He came first four times and second once. He’s earned $1,519,800. He won his maiden, the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, Tampa Bay Derby and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. He came second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and tenth in the Kentucky Derby.

Keen Ice- Keen Ice ran eight times. He finished first once and third twice. He has won $160,395. He won his maiden. He’s finished fifth in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and the Holy Bull Stakes, third in the Risen Stakes Stakes and the Holy Bull, fourth in the Louisiana and seventh in the Kentucky Derby.

Materiality- Materiality raced four times and finished first three times. He has won $656,028. He broke his maiden this January, won the Islamorada Handicap and the Florida Derby and sixth in the Kentucky Derby.

Mubtaahij- Mubtaahij raced eight times and finished first four times and second once. He has earned $1,4461,332. He won his maiden, a conditions, the Al Bastakiya and a group two. He finished second in the U.A.E. Two Thousand Guineas and eighth in the Kentucky Derby.

Derby Dreaming - Post Position Draw | Retama Ruffian

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho
2. Carpe Diem
3. Materiality
4. Tencendur
5. Danzig Moon
6. Mubtaahij
7. El Kabeir
8. Dortmund
9. Bolo
10. Firing Line
11. Stanford
12. International Star
13. Itsaknockout
14. Keen Ice
15. Frosted
16. War Story
17. Mr. Z
18. American Pharoah
19. Upstart
20. Far Right

Guest Post: Tarnishing American Racehorses, by Julia Campbell | Retama Ruffian

Tarnishing American Racehorses

by Julia Campbell

The American public has been hoping for a Triple Crown winner for thirty-seven years now. According to some, it hasn’t been won in a long time because it is simply harder to win. These knowledgeable people say that with bigger and fresher fields, it’s harder to win all three races, and that the limited amount of time between the races (five weeks) is not enough. However, it has been enough time for eleven horses, and nearly enough time for forty-seven more. The reason we haven’t seen a Triple Crown in decades? No one knows for sure, but two leading reasons may be the use of drugs on race day an the breeding of American racehorses.

Horses that didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby or Preakness have run in the Belmont for as long as all three races have been in existence. These fresh horses were brought into the Belmont in years colts became Triple Crown winners. In the 1973 Belmont, for example, the year Secretariat became a Triple Crown winner, a fresh horse named Pvt. Smiles ran. He finished fourth. In 1948, Better Self ran fresh in the Belmont and finished second to Triple Crown winner Citation. Triple Crown winners have beaten fresh horses before. Also, the Belmont fields have always varied in size. The largest field (fifteen horses ran) was in 1983. The Belmont has had a two-horse field five times (1887, 1888, 1892, 1910, 1920). There is nothing new in having a nine or ten horse field.

California Chrome at the 2014 Pennsylvania Derby (gr II)

This is not meant to discredit recent reachers-and-missers, such as California Chrome. It is hard to win all three Triple Crown races. It’s hard to win the longest race of the three after winning the two shorter ones with just two weeks of rest since.

However, the failure to win the Triple Crown may be due to the fact that most American Thoroughbreds have run on drugs since 1995. Every Triple Crown was won before 1995. The Kentucky Derby is no longer run on steroids after the fatal breakdown of Eight Belles in the 2008 Derby, won by Big Brown won. However, most other races allow Lasix and other anti-bleeding medication. There is great question as to whether Big Brown was really as good as he seemed, or if the medication enabled him to do as well as he did. That question still constantly hangs over the industry today.

The failing of recent horses to win the Triple Crown can also be attributed to too much inbreeding. Almost every horse currently running in the United States can trace their bloodlines back to Native Dancer at least once. For example, three of four grandparents of Eight Belles can trace their bloodlines back to Native Dancer within the first three generations of their pedigrees.

Additionally, most graded stakes winners in the U.S. in 2014 come from one of five sire lines: Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, Bold Ruler, Turn-to, and In Reality. The top two of these five, Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector, are both grandsons of Native Dancer. 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome, for example, contains at least two of the aforementioned sires in the first five generations of his pedigree. There is a declining amount of variety in American breeding, leading to more inbreeding. In the case of California Chrome, Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector both show up twice in the first five generations of his pedigree.

California Chrome

With more inbreeding, racehorses will become more susceptible to genetic disorders. One example of this is the fact that racehorses’ ankles have become thinner over the years. Thinner and weaker ankles unable to support one thousand pounds on muscle and bone charging at forty miles per hour are bound to lead to more breakdowns, and they do. Breakdowns can be attributed to a.) drug use, and  b.) inbreeding.

With the same sires dominating the scene, their talents are passed on the most. Of the top five sires in 2014 graded stakes wins mentioned earlier, Northern Dancer and Bold Ruler never won races longer than ten furlongs (1 ¼ miles), Mr. Prospector never won a race longer than six furlongs (¾ mile), and Turn-to and In Reality never won races longer than nine furlongs (⅞ mile). This may not seem to be a big deal, but when it comes to longer races like the twelve-furlong (1 ½ miles) Belmont Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic, only Mr. Prospector produced more than four offspring whose progeny went on to win either of those races.

There is no doubt that the American Thoroughbred has decreased in value over the years. The real question is how much has the Thoroughbred downgraded over the decades. And just how much time and money will it take to bring America and its horses back to the top before it’s too late

You can find Julia on Instagram.

Derby Dreaming - Ami's Flatter | Retama Ruffian

| Derby Dreaming is a blog series in which I review the pedigree and capabilities of the horses who have, as of the day posted, a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. |

Ami’s Flatter

Flatter - Galloping Ami, Ivan Dalos, 20 Points

Ami’s Flatter is yet to win a graded stakes, coming fourth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (1 1/16 mile) and second in the Tampa Bay Derby (1 1/16 mile). His sire, Flatter, did nothing spectacular other than coming third in the grade two Washington Park Handicap (1 3/16 mile). Flatter sired Flat Out, who came third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (1 ¼ mile). He came third and won two editions of the Jockey Club Gold Cup (1 ¼ mile). Flatter’s sire is the Hall of Fame A.P. Indy. A.P. Indy won the Santa Anita Derby (1 ⅛ mile), Peter Pan Stakes (1 ⅛ mile), Belmont Stakes (1 ½ mile) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (1 ¼ mile).

Galloping Ami, Ami’s Flatter dam, never started. Victory Gallop, Ami’s Flatter’s damsire, came second in the Kentucky Derby (1 ¼ mile) and the Preakness Stakes (1 3/16 mile). He won the Belmont Stakes (1 ½ mile), Stephan Foster Handicap (1 ⅛ mile) and the Whitney Handicap (1 ⅛ mile). He also came third in the Dubai World Cup. Galloping Ami’s dam, Secret Ami, was a black-type stakes placer. She was a dirt sprinter who stretched out to 1 1/16 mile.

Ami’s Flatter is capible of getting the distance that the Kentucky Derby demands. The only sprinter is his pedigree may come in handy for homestretch battles. Ami’s Flatter looks good on paper but hasn’t really proved himself in the races.

Ami's Flatter's Pedigree (Courtesy of Equineline)

Derby Dreaming - American Pharoah | Retama Ruffian

Derby Dreaming is a blog series in which I review the pedigree and capabilities of the horses who have, as of the day posted, a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

American Pharoah

Pioneerof the Nile - Littleprincessemma, Zayat Stables, 60 Points

American Pharoah finished fifth in his first start, a maiden special weight. The next month the bay colt won the  grade one Del Mar Futurity (7 furlongs). He repeated the win, proving he wasn’t a fluke, in the grade one FrontRunner Stakes (1 1/16 miles) and the grade two Rebel Stakes (1 1/16 mile). American Pharoah won the 2014 Eclipse Award Champion Two-Year Old Colt.

His sire, Pioneerof the Nile, can get the distance of the Kentucky Derby, coming second in the race himself. Before his second in the Derby, the stallion won the CashCall Futurity (1 1/16 mile), Robert B. Lewis (1 1/16 mile), San Felipe Stakes (1 1/16 mile) and the Santa Anita Derby (1 ⅛ mile). In the Kentucky Derby, Pioneerof the Nile lost to Mine That Bird after a bumped start and racing three-wide. The dark bay stallion finished eleventh in the Preakness, losing yet again to Mine That Bird and the future Horse of the Year, Rachel Alexandra. American Pharoah’s grandsire, Empire Maker, is yet another reassurance to American Pharoah’s ability to get the Kentucky Derby’s distance. Empire Maker came third in the Remsen Stakes (1 ⅛ mile) and second in the Sham Stakes (1 ⅛ mile), Kentucky Derby (1 ¼ mile) and the Jim Dandy Stakes (1 ⅛ mile). The fifteen year old stallion in the Florida Derby (1 ⅛ mile), Wood Memorial Stakes (1 ⅛ mile) and the Belmont Stakes (1 ½ mile).

Littleprincessemma never won in either of her two starts. Her sire, Yankee Gentleman, was a sprinter. He won the Pirate’s Bounty Handicap (6 furlongs). He came fourth in the grade two Riva Ridge Breeders’ Cup Stakes (7 furlongs) and the grade one Ancient Title Breeders’ Cup Handicap (6 furlongs). Yankee Gentleman came fifth in the grade two Dwyer Stakes (1 1/16 mile) and the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (6 furlongs). The granddam of American Pharoah won the five furlong Florida Thoroughbred Charities Stakes.

American Pharoah’s distance capabilities come from the male side of his pedigree. His speed comes from his dam side. If the colt stays healthy and continues with his workouts and racing form, American Pharoah will continue to be a force to be reckoned with on the Derby Trail.

American Pharoah's Pedigree (Courtesy of Equineline)

Gotham Stakes 2015 Picks | Retama Ruffian

Gotham Stakes

Grade III, Aqueduct, 1 1/16 M (Dirt), Post Time: 4:50 PM EST

While El Kabeir has had three massive runs recently, all that’s good must come to an end. I’m not saying that the grey is going to crash-and-burn but I don’t think he’ll run higher than fourth. His last win, the Jerome Stakes, came at a mile and seventy yards. He finished with a one-and-three-fourths length victory over Nasa. The second place finisher was listed as “no match”. The Gotham is a whole 1/16 of a mile longer. His first and only time at this distance was a second place finish. Keep in mind though, he lost to a horse who lost his foot and stumbled at the start. With a good break, El Kabeir will have a run for his money.

El Kabeir

Combat Diver came second in the Miracle Wood Stakes at one mile. After tossing it around a moment, Combat Diver scratched from my list but may be kept as a dark horse. Unless Dontbetwithbruno is a miracle horse, you might as well toss him too. The recent maiden winner, Lieutenant Colonel has great breeding but a not-so-stellar record. Another maiden winner, Tiz Shea D. Toasting Master won’t be a threath. Still a maiden, forget Uninfluenced. Blame Jim is the last I’ll toss.

Tencedur may not have much BUT he did run fourth in the Wither Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. He came behind Classy Class, El Kabeir and Far From Over. His workout on February 21st placed him first out of ninety nine at Aqueduct going four furlongs in :48.05. He may be one to look out for later on the Derby trail.

Classy Class, and I am announcing this for the first time, is one my Derby Dark Horses. Yes, he isn’t a true “dark” horse but I’ve been following him since after his maiden so I believe in him 100%. The Discreetly Mine colt came fourth in the 1 ⅛ mile Remsen Stakes and third  in the 1 1/16 mile Withers Stakes. Classy Class is my pick for the Gotham Stakes.

Classy Class

Contenders

El Kabeir

Classy Class

Tencedur

Pretenders

Combat Diver

Dontbetwithbruno

Lieutenant Colonel

Tiz  Shea D

Toasting Master

Uninfluenced

Blame Jim