Smashing the Cup is my annual blog series in which I reveal my picks for the Breeders' Cup and help you, Smash the Cup.
Las Vegas Dirt Mile
With a quick glance at the Dirt Mile, it seems Liam's Map (Unbridled's Song-Miss Macy Sue) is the obvious winner. However, a deeper analysis shows he might not be. Let's break it down, horse by horse, shall we?
1. Red Vine
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Red Vine hasn't accomplished much until recently. It took three attempts for him to break his maiden, which he did at Del Mar, going a mile on the turf at 1:34.22. His next win didn't come for months. It was an allowance at Keeneland on the turf. His biggest win thus far was the Majestic Light Stakes (1 mile 70 yards) in May at Monmouth. After that, his career really started to pick up. He came second in the grade three Salvator Mile to fellow starter, Bradester. Fast forward a month the Pacific Classic (1 1/4 miles) where he lost to Classic starter, Beholder, and Argentina-bred, Catch a Flight. His most recent start brought a 2nd in the Kelso Handicap (1 mile). Appealing Tale won the Kelso. If Red Vine continues to improve, he could be a threat.
2. Bradester
Bradester kicked off his 2015 campaign with a thirteen in a group two race at Meydan Racecourse. Once he made it back to the US, he finished third in a Churchill Downs one mile allowance race. Next came the Salvator Mile, where he "kicked clear under urging". He didn't disappoint in the Monmouth Cup (1 1/16 miles), beating Dirt Mile starter Valid. His Breeders' Cup prep was the Phillip H. Iselin Stakes (gr. 3) at Monmouth. This time, it was Valid's turn to outrun Bradester, who finished second. His latest work was five furlongs in 58.60.
3. Liam's Map
Raise your hand if you didn't know much about this horse up until recently. Guilty as charged. Liam's Map hasn't had a long 2015 campaign, but Pletcher sure did make the best of it. Starting in an Allowance Optional Claiming (1 mile) in June, Liam's Map brought the field home in 1:34.48. He started in the Whitney Stakes (1 1/8 miles) next, where it was luck that forced his loss to Classic starter, Honor Code. Pletcher, however, didn't have to wait long for his grey colt to earn his grade one win. Less than a month later, the quick turn of foot sealed the deal for Liam's Map in the grade one Woodward Stakes (1 1/8 miles). With a small Keeneland turn, his turn of foot will be one to watch out for.
4. Mr. Z
Ah, the infamous, unfortunate Mr. Z. Had this colt been born a year earlier or a year later, then maybe Mr. Z would still be owned by the real Mr. Z(ayat). Mr. Z is a really good horse and can run with the best of them, but wasn't ready to win his stakes (blacktype) until this year in the Ohio Derby. He had a great effort in the Pennsylvania Derbyshire and without the added 1/8 , I see him pulling a huge upset. After all, D. Wayne Lukas is know for his Breeders' Cup upsets.
5. Lea
5. Lea
It's obvious Lea likes one mile on the dirt races and the Dirt Mile is a perfect fit for him. Sadly though, the First Samurai colt hasn't won in nine months. That maybe be so, but you can't ignore his extravagant record this year. Because, hey, a third in the Dubai World Cup isn't bad at all. His last win was the Hal's Hope Stakes back in January. Since then, Lea hasn't finish worse that 3rd (we will just draw a line through the Whitney Stakes because that isn't the Lea we all know). If I was another horse, I would honestly be worried about Lea in this race. I see him coming second behind Liam's Map or just barely beating him for first.
6. Street Strategy
Well. Unless a meteor falls from the sky and cherishes the rest of the Dirt Mile field, I don't see Street Strategy winning. But congratulations on being in the Breeders' Cup!
7. War Envoy
This isn't Europe and this definitely isn't the allowance claiming races. So unless you excel in America (which you haven't so far), go back home.
8. Wicked Strong
I remember when this was the horse. Ah, the good ole days. His last win was the Jim Dandy Stakes in 2014. Don't get me wrong, he is a great horse. However, he really needs a confidence boost and I highly doubt he'll find one in the Breeders' Cup. I do expect Wicked Strong to have a lot of closing speed and, if Liam's Map fails to fire, this horse will clean it up.
9. Tapiture
9. Tapiture
While he was a great horse last year, Tapiture has just not found the winner's circle as often as he should have this year. He started his 2015 campaign with a fifth in the Razorback Handicap, where he just failed to respond in the stretch. I'm going to draw a line through that race. He stayed at Oaklawn for the Oaklawn Handicap (1 1/8 miles), in which he finished third to Race Day and Carve yet again. He then shipped to Texas for trainer Asmussen and ran third in the Lone Star Park Handicap (1 1/16 miles). Again, I will draw a line through his performance in the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap (1 1/8 miles). For his Breeders' Cup prep, Tapiture when to the Ack Ack Handicap (1 mile) and established himself as a winner once again. I see him coming in fourth or higher.
10. Valid
10. Valid
What's there to say? Valid has beat some horses in this field. He's lost to some horses in this field. For this reasons, I have a reason to say that Valid is a valid contender.
11. War Story
I remember when War Story was on the Derby trail and wasn't doing to shabby. Those days seem to be long gone now, and I just don't see him getting his form back without a win under his belt.
Contenders
Red Vine
Liam's Map
Mr. Z
Lea
Wicked Strong
Tapiture
Valid
Pretenders
Street Strategy
War Envoy
War Story
It All Depends
Bradester- If he shows up with his best, he has a very good chance. However, if he shows up with anything less, then toss your bet slip in the trash.
