Derby Preps: Louisiana Derby | Retama Ruffian

We are forty three days away from the Kentucky Derby. It's go time. I'm getting my Derby profiles together, rewatching prep races and, of course, looking ahead to the upcoming prep races. With that said...here's my thoughts on the 2016 Louisiana Derby.

GUN RUNNER
(Candy Ride-Quiet Giant, by Giant's Causeway)

Gun Runner went from finishing fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes to winning the Risen Star Stakes. Previously to that, he won both a maiden special weight and an allowance. He won the Risen Star by 1 1/2 lengths, beating out Forevamo and Mo Tom. Gun Runner has already beat Forevamo, Mo Tom, Candy My Boy, Zapperini, Tom's Ready and Uncle Walter, all of who are starting in the Louisiana Derby. His slow workout times don't bother me; he has already ran at Fair Grounds, and he ran well.
CONTENDER

GREENPOINTCRUSADER
(Bernardini-Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance)

Greenpointcrusader finished second in his first outing and came back two months later to break his maiden at Saratoga. He then went on to win the grade one Champagne Stakes and finish seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Greenpointcrusader recently finished second to Mohaymen in the Holy Bull. I'm not sure I like he most recent breeze, a five furlong in 1:02.30. His final workout before the Holy Bull was a five furlong in 1:02.00 and he finished second. He hasn't started nor worked on the Fair Grounds track.
CONTENDER

BATTERY 
(Bernardini-Flawless Diamond, by Saint Ballado)

The first time I looked at his race record, I said "Oh my". I'm not sure I like him nor do I believe he can compete at this level yet. However, I did say that about Melatonin too.
PRETENDER

CONQUEST WINDYCITY
(Tiznow-Lasting Appeal, by A.P. Indy)

After finishing fourth in the Iroquois Stakes, Conquest Windycity dropped down into the maiden special weight and allowance level. He did, however, work over the Fair Grounds course in 48.80 for four furlongs.
POSSIBLE

CANDY MY BOY
(Candy Ride-Runaway Rosie, by Include)

On his fifth attempt, Candy My Boy broke his maiden at Fair Grounds. A little less than a month later, he won an allowance optional claiming, over Forevamo (also at Fair Grounds). In his first start at the graded level, Candy My Boy finished fourth in the Risen Star. In the Risen Star, the colt was all over the place before he finally weakened in the stretch. I'm not sure the extra distance will benefit him any.
PRETENDER

MO TOM
(Uncle Mo-Caroni, by Rubiano)

Mo Tom broke his maiden in September of last year and then went on to win the Street Sense Stakes. He finished third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (1 1/16 mile) before winning the LeComte Stakes (1 mile and 70 yards) at Fair Grounds. In his latest start, Mo Tom finished third in the Risen Star (1 1/16 mile). Being an Uncle Mo baby, Mo Tom may be best suited for 1 1/16 mile and under races.
POSSIBLE

TOM'S READY
(More Than Ready-Goodbye Stranger, by Broad Bush)

Wow.
PRETENDER

UNCLE WALTER
(Uncle Mo-Look for Good, by Unbridled's Song)

On the bright side, he did finished third in the LeComte.
PRETENDER

DAZZLING GEM
(Misremembered-Dazzler, by Vindication)

Dazzling Gem has won both of his starts thus far-a maiden special weight and an allowance. He has been working well at Oaklawn but hasn't tested the Fair Grounds track yet.
POSSIBLE

ZAPPERINI
(Ghostzapper-Bobby's Babe, by Smart Strike)

Zapperini finished 5th in the Risen Star last time out. His workouts at Fair Grounds have been quite slow.
PRETENDER

FOREVAMO
(Uncle Mo-Candlelightdinner, by Slew Gin Fizz)

Forevamo won the Jean Lafittle Stakes and finished 6th in the Delta Downs Jackpot. In his last start, he finished second in the Risen Star. Forevamo  has been working on the Fair Grounds track.
POSSIBLE

CONTENDERS

Gun Runner

Greenpointcrusader

PRETENDER

Battery

Candy My Boy

Tom's Ready

Uncle Walter

Zapperini

POSSIBLE

Conquest Windycity

Mo Tom

Dazzling Gem

Forevamo

Gotham Stakes (gr. III) | Retama Ruffian

Gotham Stakes

Aqueduct; $400,000; 8.5 furlongs; 3YO; March 5

Laoban

(Uncle Mo-Chattertown, by Speightstown)

Though he is lightly raced, this isn't a horse I would overlook. In his three race career, Laoban finished seventh in his first start (he failed to rally), second in the next and third in his first stakes. His second race, a maiden special weight, resulted in a narrow loss to Let's Meet in Rio. Laoban's latest start was in the grade three Sham Stakes. He rallied well for third, despite going four wide. 

CONTENDER

Shagaf 

(Bernardini-Muhaawara, by Unbridled's Song)

In some circles this horse has been all the rage as a "Derby Dark Horse". I don't see it. At Gulfstream, he beat a couple of maiden special weight winners. His breezes haven't been spectacular either. However, I do believe this horse wants to win. I can't decide if I like him or not.

POSSIBLE

Adventist

(Any Given Saturday-Sharp Minister, by Deputy Minister)

Another lightly raced horse, Adventist could be quite a threat. In his maiden special weight, he fought his rider throughout the homestretch but still managed to pull away from the field. In the grade three Withers, he had a rough start, fought his jockey around the first turn and dueled in the home stretch. Another bonus: he has already faced Sunny Ridge.

CONTENDER

Vincento

(Include-Seeking the Silver, by Grindstone)

Easily my least favorite horse in the field, Vincento has started four times. However, I don't believe he can compete at this level. 

PRETENDER

Mo Power

(Uncle Mo-Rhiana, by Runaway Groom)

With horses like Nyquist and Mo Tom, Uncle Mo has been well received as a sire and it's no surprise why. Mo Power has yet to start outside of a maiden special weight but should do well moving up into the graded level. He fought with the third place finished before pulling away in his maiden. Mo Power may be a horse that doesn't like to lose. However, his breeze times  are worrying me.

POSSIBLE

Conquest Big E

(Tapit-Seeinisbelievin, by Carson City)

I'm usually a big fan of Conquest Stables' horses and Tapit progeny but I can't seem to like this horse. I don't believe he will excel at the graded level until he has more experience. 

PRETENDER

Sunny Ridge

(Holy Bull-Liqnum Vitae, by Songandaprayer)

Despite his insanely slow workouts, Sunny Ridge boasts a good portfolio. He started his career in a Monmouth Park maiden claiming before finishing seventh in the Sandford Stakes. He won the Sapling Stakes and then finished second in the Champagne Stakes to Greenpointcrusader. Along with a second in the Delta Downs Jackpot to Exaggerator, Sunny Ridge won the grade three Withers Stakes. He is easily the class of the field.

CONTENDER

Rally Cry

(Uncle Mo-Alienated, by Gone West)

In three starts, Rally Cry managed to win a maiden special weight in December. Since then, he finished third in an allowance optional claiming to Shagaf. As much as I like Pletcher trainees, I don't think Rally Cry will do much.

PRETENDER