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Mar 26, 2016

Derby Preps: Louisiana Derby | Retama Ruffian

We are forty three days away from the Kentucky Derby. It's go time. I'm getting my Derby profiles together, rewatching prep races and, of course, looking ahead to the upcoming prep races. With that said...here's my thoughts on the 2016 Louisiana Derby.

GUN RUNNER
(Candy Ride-Quiet Giant, by Giant's Causeway)

Gun Runner went from finishing fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes to winning the Risen Star Stakes. Previously to that, he won both a maiden special weight and an allowance. He won the Risen Star by 1 1/2 lengths, beating out Forevamo and Mo Tom. Gun Runner has already beat Forevamo, Mo Tom, Candy My Boy, Zapperini, Tom's Ready and Uncle Walter, all of who are starting in the Louisiana Derby. His slow workout times don't bother me; he has already ran at Fair Grounds, and he ran well.
CONTENDER

GREENPOINTCRUSADER
(Bernardini-Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance)

Greenpointcrusader finished second in his first outing and came back two months later to break his maiden at Saratoga. He then went on to win the grade one Champagne Stakes and finish seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Greenpointcrusader recently finished second to Mohaymen in the Holy Bull. I'm not sure I like he most recent breeze, a five furlong in 1:02.30. His final workout before the Holy Bull was a five furlong in 1:02.00 and he finished second. He hasn't started nor worked on the Fair Grounds track.
CONTENDER

BATTERY 
(Bernardini-Flawless Diamond, by Saint Ballado)

The first time I looked at his race record, I said "Oh my". I'm not sure I like him nor do I believe he can compete at this level yet. However, I did say that about Melatonin too.
PRETENDER

CONQUEST WINDYCITY
(Tiznow-Lasting Appeal, by A.P. Indy)

After finishing fourth in the Iroquois Stakes, Conquest Windycity dropped down into the maiden special weight and allowance level. He did, however, work over the Fair Grounds course in 48.80 for four furlongs.
POSSIBLE

CANDY MY BOY
(Candy Ride-Runaway Rosie, by Include)

On his fifth attempt, Candy My Boy broke his maiden at Fair Grounds. A little less than a month later, he won an allowance optional claiming, over Forevamo (also at Fair Grounds). In his first start at the graded level, Candy My Boy finished fourth in the Risen Star. In the Risen Star, the colt was all over the place before he finally weakened in the stretch. I'm not sure the extra distance will benefit him any.
PRETENDER

MO TOM
(Uncle Mo-Caroni, by Rubiano)

Mo Tom broke his maiden in September of last year and then went on to win the Street Sense Stakes. He finished third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (1 1/16 mile) before winning the LeComte Stakes (1 mile and 70 yards) at Fair Grounds. In his latest start, Mo Tom finished third in the Risen Star (1 1/16 mile). Being an Uncle Mo baby, Mo Tom may be best suited for 1 1/16 mile and under races.
POSSIBLE

TOM'S READY
(More Than Ready-Goodbye Stranger, by Broad Bush)

Wow.
PRETENDER

UNCLE WALTER
(Uncle Mo-Look for Good, by Unbridled's Song)

On the bright side, he did finished third in the LeComte.
PRETENDER

DAZZLING GEM
(Misremembered-Dazzler, by Vindication)

Dazzling Gem has won both of his starts thus far-a maiden special weight and an allowance. He has been working well at Oaklawn but hasn't tested the Fair Grounds track yet.
POSSIBLE

ZAPPERINI
(Ghostzapper-Bobby's Babe, by Smart Strike)

Zapperini finished 5th in the Risen Star last time out. His workouts at Fair Grounds have been quite slow.
PRETENDER

FOREVAMO
(Uncle Mo-Candlelightdinner, by Slew Gin Fizz)

Forevamo won the Jean Lafittle Stakes and finished 6th in the Delta Downs Jackpot. In his last start, he finished second in the Risen Star. Forevamo  has been working on the Fair Grounds track.
POSSIBLE

CONTENDERS
Gun Runner
Greenpointcrusader

PRETENDER
Battery
Candy My Boy
Tom's Ready
Uncle Walter
Zapperini

POSSIBLE
Conquest Windycity
Mo Tom
Dazzling Gem
Forevamo



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