Revealing the Cup- BC Classic | Retama Ruffian

Shared Belief-

Positive:

• Unbeaten in seven starts
• Has raced at Santa Anita (Awesome Again)
• Has posted a six furlong work
• Raced at the 1 1/4 mile distance (Pacific Classic)

Negative:

• Had a rough trip in the Awesome Again
• Gave it his all in prior start
• Has never worked over the Santa Anita track

Shared Belief (Candy Ride-Common Hope) is undefeated in seven races, including the Pacific Classic and the Awesome Again. He has started at grade one, two and three with an allowance race and, of course, his maiden race. His first graded win was the Hollywood Prevue (7 furlongs) with his next being the Cashcall Futurity (1 1/16 mile), where he beat Candy Boy and Tamarando. After a six month break due to an injury he came back and won an allowance race (6 furlongs) over older horses. Perhaps his latest win was his best win. In the Los Alamitos Derby Shared Belief stretched out to 1 1/8 mile and took the reins of his dirt debut, churning plenty of it into his competitors faces. Candy Ride  raced in Argentina for half of his races and then won the American Handicap (1 1/8 mile) and the Pacific Classic (1 1/4 mile). Common Hope won her maiden before retiring with five starts. As you know, Shared Belief will always be a contender in my eyes.

Tonalist-

Positive:

• Has won three races at 1 1/4 mile or greater

Negative:

• Never started at SA
• Has never worked over SA track

As of now I believe Tonalist (Tapit-Settling Mist) can only win a grade one event a Belmont Park. He won the Peter Pan (1 1/8 mile), Belmont (1 1/2 mile) before managing a 2nd in the Jim Dandy (1 1/8 mile), a third in the Travers (1 1/4 mile) and then winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (1 1/4 mile). He is by Tapit, out of Settling Mist. Tapit won the Laurel Futurity (1 1/16 mile) and the Wood Memorial (1 1/8 mile). He came ninth in the Kentucky Derby and the Pennsylvania Derby (1 1/8 mile). The grandson of Seattle Slew, Pulpit is the grandsire of Tonalist. He, like Tapit, won the Fountain of Youth, came second in the Florida Derby, won the Toyota Blue Grass (1 1/8 mile) and 4th came in the Kentucky Derby. Settling Mist won one out of nineteen races. Tonalist for sure has the pedigree but can he only win grade one events at Belmont?

Bayern-

Positive:

• Beat the Derby and Preakness winner (Pennsylvania Derby)
• Has won at Santa Anita
• Trained over the SA track

Negative:

• Came tenth at 1 1/4 mile
• Has early speed and usually fades
• Inconsistent runner

Bayern (Offlee Wild-Alittlebitearly) showed he wasn't just a sprinter with his wire to wire Haskell win and his domination over Chrome in the Pennsylvania Derby. Offlee  Wild won the Holy Bull Stakes (1 1/16 mile). But didn't have much luck in grade one races, not winning for another year. His first grade one victory came in 2004 when he beat Funny Cide in the Massachusettes Handicap. He was challenged by four other horses in the Breeders' Cup Handicap. During his final win Offlee Wild, once again, beat Funny Cide in the Suburban Handicap. Offlee Wild is by the Icecapade stallion, Wild Again. He won the Breeders' Cup Classic (1 1/4th mile). Alittlebitearly was unraced. Yes, Bayern has proved himself. Yes, he is an amazing racer. But will he get stuck in a speed dual?

Moreno-

Positive:

• Worked over Santa Anita track
• Raced at SA

Negative:

• No work at 6 furlongs or longer
• Came 10th in '13 BCC

Moreno (Ghostzapper-Danceinthesunlight) is by one of my favorite sires, Ghostzapper, but I'm not too excited about this colt's races this year, other than his Whitney win over Palace Malice. He came 2nd in the Suburban Handicap (1 1/4 mile), 3rd in the Charles Town Classic Stakes (1 1/8 mile). Ghostzapper won the Vosburgh Stakes (6 1/2 furlongs), Tom Fool Handicap (7 furlongs), Breeders' Cup Handicap (1 1/8 mile), Woodward Stakes (1 1/8 mile), Breeders' Cup Classic (1 1/4 mile) and, his final race, the Met Mile. Sire of Ghostzapper, Awesome Again is the winner of the 1988 Stephen Foster (1 1/8 mile), '98 Whitney Handicap (1 1/8 mile), '98 Breeders' Cup Handicap, '98 Hawthorne Gold Cup, both 1 1/4 mile, and the '98 BC Classic (1 1/4 mile). Danceinthesunlight was unraced. She was by the '92 BC Classic victor, A.P. Indy. I really like Moreno's pedigree in the Classic.

Majestic Harbor-

Positive:

• Has won at SA
• Worked over the SA dirt
• Has had a six furlong work

Negative:

• Hasn’t won since June
• Came fourth the last time out at SA

I have found nothing interesting about Majestic Harbor (Rockport Harbor-Champagne Royal). His racing didn’t get serious until earlier this year, when he won the Tokyo City Cup (gr. III). He finished third in the Californian Stakes (1 ⅛ mile) and then won the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (1 ¼ mile). After that he came sixth in the TVG Pacific Classic (1 ¼ mile) and fourth in the Awesome Again Stakes (1 ⅛ mile). Rockport Harbor won the Nashua Stakes (1 mile), Remsen Stakes (1 ⅛ mile) and the Essex Stakes (1 1/16 mile). He came second in the Rebel Stakes (1 1/16 mile). Champagne Royal did nothing spectacular.  Majestic Harbor could be a longshot (10/1-15/1) worthy of a good price.

Prayer for Relief-

Positive:

• Worked over Santa Anita’s track
• Raced at SA

Negative:

• Hasn’t trained at 6 furlongs or farther
• Never won in 2014
• Hasn’t won a race this year

Prayer for Relief (Jump Start-Sparklin Lil) won the Iowa Derby (1 1/16 mile), West Virginia Derby (1 ⅛ mile), Super Derby (1 ⅛ mile) and the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker (1 ⅛ mile). Jump Start won the Saratoga Special Stakes (6 ½ furlongs) and came second in the Champagne Stakes (1 1/16 mile). Sparklin Lil won nothing spectacular. Prayer for Relief should sit out this race and prepare for next year.

California Chrome-

Positive:

• Won at this distance
• Has beat two horses in this field
• Won at Santa Anita
• Worked at six furlongs

Negative:

• Came 6th in last start
• Came 4th against Tonalist
• Hasn’t worked over Santa Anita

California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit-Love the Chase) is the horse everyone wants to win. A dual classic winner, Kentucky Derby (1 ¼ mile) and the Preakness Stakes (1 3/16 mile), Chrome had three month break before coming back and finishing sixth in the Pennsylvania Derby (1 ⅛ mile). He won the Graduation Stakes (5 ½ furlongs), King Glorious Stakes (7 furlongs), California Cup Derby (1 1/16 mile), San Felipe Stakes (1 1/16 mile), Santa Anita Derby (1 ⅛ mile) and, of course, the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Lucky Pulpit won three of his twenty-two starts. Love the Chase only broke her maiden. California Chrome hasn’t shown much improvement in his previous training but it looks like he’ll be a horse to beat.

V.E. Day-

Positive:

• Won the Travers Stakes in a fast closing pace
• BCC  should have a lot of speed
• 7 furlong work

Negative:

• Hasn’t trained over the SA dirt
• Never started at Santa Anita
• Fifth his last time out

V.E. Day (English Channel-California Sunset) won the Travers Stakes. He started seven times; his worst placing was a fifth the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He won his maiden (1 mile) five months into the year. In July V.E. Day won an allowance (1 1/8 mile) before winning the Curlin Stakes (1 1/8 mile), beating Charge Now and Viva Majorca. English Channel won the Virginia Derby (1 1/4 mile), Canadian Turf Handicap (1 1/16 mile), Woodford Turf Classic (1 1/8 mile), United Nations Stakes (1 3/8 mile), and the Breeder's Cup Turf (1 1/2 mile). California Sunset is unstarted. She is by Deputy Minister, the 2-Year Old Eclipse Award winner. V.E. Day has the pedigree but I'm a little worried about his fifth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Zivo-

Positive:

• 2nd in the JCGC
• Won the Suburban Handicap

Negative:

• No stamina works
• No works at Santa Anita
• Hasn’t started at SA

Zivo (True Direction-American Skipper) is an obvious threat to this race. The only time he finished worse than third was in the Woodward Stakes, which also happened to be his first attempt at the grade one level. His sire wasn't the best of racers and neither was his dam but I can't wait to see what Zivo does in this grade one.

Imperative-

Positive:

• Raced at Santa Anita
• Training at SA
• Has a 6 furlong work

Negative:

• Never won at Santa Anita
• Came fifth the last time out
• Never won a grade one race

Imperative (Bernardini-Call Her) got his big break with a second in the San Antonio Stakes (1 1/8 mile), a 3rd in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (1 1/4 mile) and a win in the Charles Town Classic (1 1/8), all of which he beat fellow runner Game On Dude. Bernardini was a rather accomplished runner with a win in the Withers (1 mile), Preakness Stakes (1 3/16 mile), Jim Dandy (1 1/8 mile), Travers (1 1/4 mile) and the Jockey Gold Cup (1 1/4 mile). He came 2nd in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Call Her was a black-type winner but only had one win of the type. Imperative has the pedigree and has beat some of these horses at least once but he isn't a very consistent runner.

Candy Boy-

Positive:

• Won at Santa Anita
• 6 furlong work
• Training at Santa Anita

Negative:

• Hasn’t won since the Robert B. Lewis (Santa Anita)
• Lost last three races

Candy Boy (Candy Ride-She's an Eleven) came second in both of his last races and third in the Pennsylvania Derby. Other than his maiden, his only win was the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (1 1/16 mile). Candy Ride raced in Argentina for half of his races and then won the American Handicap (1 1/8 mile) and the Pacific Classic (1 1/4 mile). Candy Ride raced in Argentina for half of his races and then won the American Handicap (1 1/8 mile) and the Pacific Classic (1 1/4 mile). He went six-for-six and concluded his racing career in 2003. She's An Eleven broke her maiden before winning the Melair Stakes (1 1/16 mile). She came fifth in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (1 1/8 mile), fourth in the Hollywood Breeders' Cup Oaks (1 1/16 mile) and sixth in the Lady's Secret Stakes (1 1/16). Candy Boy may not win but it'd be something special if he did but he can be a threat in the the top four.

Big Cazanova-

Positive:

• Raced at Santa Anita
• 6 furlong work
• 1 mile work

Negative:

• Seventh in last start
• Didn’t break his maiden until May

For Big Cazanova (Giant's Causeway-Gem Bob) all I have to say is bye, bye! He came seventh in his last start and has done nothing spectaular.

Toast of New York-

Positive:

• Finished second to Shared Belief (Pacific Classic)

Negative:

• No recorded workouts
• Hasn’t tried the Santa Anita dirt

Toast of New York (Thewayyouare-Claire Soleil) is going to be dropped. He started twice in America which resulted in a second and a sixth. He is a very inconsistent runner and has no recorded trainings.

Footbridge-

Positive:

• Six furlong work
• Raced at Santa Antia
• Training at Santa Anita

Negative:

• Never won a graded stakes

Footbridge (Street Cry (IRE)-Thousand Islands (GB) may be ignored in this race for lack of experience but I think he may be a true contender. Street Cry came second in the Del Mar Futurity (7 furlongs) and Norfolk Stakes (1 mile). He came third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (1 1/16 mile). He won the UAE Two Thousand Guineas, Dubai World Cup and the Stephen Foster Handicap (1 ⅛  mile). Thousand Islands did nothing special.

Cigar Street-

Positive:

• N/A

Negative:

• No works 6 furlongs or above
• One graded stakes win (Skipaway Stakes- 3/30/13)
• Won last race

Cigar Street (Street Sense-Arcadiana) won his last race, the Homecoming Classic Stakes, (1 ⅛ mile) and won the Skipaway Stakes (1 3/16 mile). Street Sense won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (1 1/16 mile), Tampa Bay Derby (1 1/16 mile), Kentucky Derby (1 ¼ mile), Jim Dandy Stakes (1 ⅛ mile) and the Travers Stakes (1 ¼ mile). He came second in the Toyota Blue Grass (1 ⅛ mile), second in the Preakness Stakes (1 3/16 mile), second in the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes (1 ⅛ mile) and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (1 ¼ mile). Arcadiana was unraced. Cigar Street may not have a grade one win to his name but based on his pedigree he has it all.

Smashing the Cup- Xpressbet Sprint | Retama Ruffian

"Win and You're In" Challenge Winners:

• Palace
• Private Zone (NOT Eligible due to Trainer)
• Rich Tapestry 
• Work All Week

Contenders (According to BC Website):

• Bern Identity
• Big Business
• Big Macher
• Clearly Now
• Coup de Grace
• Fast Anna
• Favorite Tail
• Heitai
• No Nay Never
• Salutos Amigos
• Secret Circle

Previous BC Stats:

All of the Breeders' Cup Sprint races at Santa Anita have been won with a wire, rally or stalk. Horses that won with a rally were 5 YO (Midnight Lute) and up (Cardmania, 7). The favorites at Santa Anita have won once out of seven starts and showed one with one fourth place. The second favorite has won twice, placed once and showed twice with one fourth place finish. The third favorite has won one, placed one and show once, never placing fourth. 

Choosing A Winner:

Six winners of the Sprint have had lesson than five preps with three exceptions, Trinniberg (2012, 7 races), Amazombie (2010, 8 races) and Silver Train (2005, 5 races). The average number of prior starts is seven. Of twenty-two of the most recent Sprint winners, twelve had a victory in their prior race, six had placed and three showed. All but one of the winners (Trinniberg) had a six furlong victory PRIOR to the Breeders' Cup Sprint. An ideal workout would include at least one stamina bullet. 

I hope this helped you better understand how to handicap the Breeders' Cup Xpressbet Sprint. I will have another post about the Sprint which will include my thoughts on the race. 

Until next time,

Madison

Breeders' Cup Profile-Stephanie's Kitten | Retama Ruffian

One of our challenge winners who will be for sure be headed to the Fasig-Tipton November sale is Stepahnie's Kitten (Kitten's Joy-Unfold the Rose). She's qualified for the Filly & Mare Turf in the Flower Bowl Invitational (1 1/4 mile) this past Saturday. Stephanie's Kitten has defeated Abaco, Somali Lemonade and Emollient, all of which are most likely headed towards the Filly & Mare Turf.

Stephanie's Kitten

Stephanie's Kitten, a homebred of Ken and Sarah Ramsey, won her first grade one stakes, the Darley Alcibiades (1 1/16 mile). Her next graded stakes win was the Woodford Reserve Lake Placid Stakes (1 1/8 mile) which she won on August 19th, 2012. She won the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile and the Longines Just a Game Stakes, both mile races on turf in 2013. He next win wasn't until 9/27/14, the Flower Bowl. One important item to note is that this mare won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf so she does have some experience with the Breeders' Cup.

Kitten's Joy

Turf runs in the family....Kitten's Joy won the Tropical Park Derby (1 1/8 mile), Palm Beach Stakes (1 1/8 mile), Crown Royal American Turf Stakes (1 1/16 mile and the list goes on and on. Just kidding. But Kitten's Joy was a great racer, earning the stats 14: 9-4-0. His most notable race though is the John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf (1 1/2 mile). Although he did not win it, Kitten's Joy came second to Better Talk Now. Perhaps Breeders' Cup runs in the Kitten family. Unfold the Rose did not race.

I am not going to do a Breeders' Cup Preview as I have not watch the majority of these runners' races. So...

Until next time,

Madison

Breeders' Cup Profile- Close | Retama Ruffian

The First Defense mare, Close Hatches, has more than exceeded her breeding with almost $2.75 millions in winnings. Her worst placing was a seventh in the Kentucky Oaks but bounced back to not finish worst than second after the classic event.

Close Hatches won her maiden her first time going at Gulfstream Park at seven furlongs on the dirt. At 1 1/16 mile, the mare won an allowance optional claiming under a hand ride. The allowance rocketed her into grade one company, where she beat Princess of Sylmar, the eventual Kentucky Oaks winner. Her first lost came in the one mile Gazelle Stakes.

On Oaks day Close Hatches had the outside post. She had the morning line odds of 6/1. She raced further back for the majority of the race but never fired. She was lucky she didn't get beat by Rose to Gold, who was battling with her down the backstretch.

First Defense won the Forego Handicap (7 furlongs) but could never place higher than second in any other graded stakes race. But you have to give him credit for his second in the King's Bishop Stakes as he lost to Hard Spun.

Close Hatches

Unbridled's Song won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (1 1/16 mile), Florida Derby (1 1/8 mile) and the Wood Memorial (1 1/8 mile), establishing himself as the eventual 7/2 favorite. But the colt came fifth on Derby morning after stalking in third before overtaking the pace setter, Honour and Glory. Half way down the backstretch though, the fairy tale came to an end as Grindstone and Cavoonier took over the field.  The Derby was the final grade one start for Unbridled's Song but not the final graded start. He came second in the Peter Pan (1 1/8 mile). The Kentucky Derby proved the colt was not a classic distance horse.

Close Hatches has two full sibilings, Belmont winner Empire Maker and Arlington Million winner Chester House.

Breeders' Cup Preview:
Close Hatches needs a good start so that she can settle in the 3rd/4th position. If Close Hatches were to win, here's how I see the race playing out: Belle Gallantey settles up near the front and takes over the pace setter half way through the race. Close Hatches thunders down the backstretch and takes over Belle Gallantey.

Belmont's Super Saturday...Was It Truly Super?

I want to start off by apologizing for not handicapping enough races this weekend. Life happened and my computer AND tablet decided it would be cool to die on my. : | Not cool guys, not cool....

But now with the TVG Super Saturday behind us, it's time to look forward to the October 31st and November 1st Breeders' Cup. This Saturday alone had ten grade one stakes and nine of them we're "Win & You're In" races, the Keslo Handicap was the loner.

Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes

It was obvious who was the winner here. Stephanie's Kitten (Kitten's Joy-Unfold the Rose) dominated the field with a 1 3/4 length win over Abaco and Viva Rafaela. As this was her first win of the year, I'd consider Stephanie's Kitten a pretty tough contender in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

"We've been working backwards from the Filly & Mare Turf, and believed this filly could get there all year as on of the horses to beat." Chad Brown, trainer, told BloodHorse. "She got a beautiful trip, and I'm really proud of this filly: she deserved to get a good clean trip. That's the third race in a row for us that I felt she ran terrific. She was a little unlucky in the Beverly D. and Diana, and this time Johnny got away from the gate really well and gave her a beautiful trip. The filly did the rest."

Stephanie's Kitten is a homebred for Ken and Sarah Ramsey, owners of Ramsey farm. She is to be offered at the Fasig-Tipton Keeneland Fall Mixed Sale along side Kitten Kaboodle, another homebred of Ramsey Farm.

Vosburgh Invitational Stakes

The Doug O'Neill trainee, Private Zone (Macho Uno-Auburn Beauty), pulled a very gutsy race, battling from the gate to the finish with Dads Caps. In the final strides though, Private Zone proved he was the worthier horse with a head win. If the gelding can take his style to the Xpressbet Sprint we have a clear winner. Perhaps the more important note of this race is that Private Zone is now two-for-two in the Vosburgh.

Private Zone was saddled by trainer Alfredo Velazquez for O'Neill. Velazquez said, "They didn't want to ship (Private Zone) back to California (after racing him at Parx Racing). I've trained for some of (the owners) before, and Rene Douglas is the best friend I've got. They decided to leave the horse with me to run in this race.

"If he ran good, they were going back to the Breeders' Cup. I don't know if I'm going to keep him or if they're sending him back to (O'Neill). He did a good job with the horse."

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational

Imagining lead the field for the majority of the race before being overtaken by Main Sequence (Aldebaran-Ikat) in the final strides, raising his grade one wins to three in a row. Main Sequence has punched his ticket to a spot in the starting in the Breeders' Cup Turf. 

A replay showed that both Main Sequence and Twilight Eclipse made solid contact. Jockey Rajiv Maragh spoke of the inquiry, "When he made the lead, it was a little sooner than we wanted. He starting loafing a little bit; I tried to make him see the other horse and a little contact happened. I felt like I was going to be OK on the inquiry, but it was nerve-wracking."

It has been confirmed that the chestnut gelding's next start will be at Santa Anita in the Breeders' Cup Turf on November 1st. "I was kind of sick, to be honest (during the inquiry)," Main Sequence's trainer, Graham Motion said. "I thought it would have been a bit cruel to take it away, but he definitely bumped the other horse. I feel bad for West Point (owner of Twilight Eclipse). I train for them and that horse has run three big races and he's come out on the wrong end of them."

Jockey Club Gold Cup

Time for me to eat my words...Tonalist (Tapit-Settling Mist) won the JCGC by 1 3/4 lengths. Perhaps the colt can run well but he just needs to run at Belmont, where all of his grade one wins have come. Around the turn Wicked Strong stumbled after clipping heels with the Whitney winner, Moreno, and unseated jockey, Rajiv Maragh, just as he was beginning to make his move. Thankfully, though, the loose horse managed to avoid contact with the rest of the field. 

"I probably should have removed the blinkers before the Travers," Christophe Clement, trainer of Tonalist, said. "He obviously was a bit too aggressive in the Travers. He doesn't need the blinkers anymore. I should have realized before that he was more mature."

An inquiry was filed aginst Moreno and the stewards ruled Moreno, winner of the Whitney Handicap, cut off Wicked Strong's path, causing the spill. Moreno was disqualifed from fourth to last. Tonalist has earned an official spot in the Breeders' Cup Classic and Clement said it was likely the next stop for the colt. Zivo's trainer Chad Brown said the same for Zivo.

Beldame Stakes

Winning by almost eight lengths, Belle Gallantey (After Market-Revealed) now has two grade on wins on her record. A former claimer, the mare won the race in an impressive wire-to-wire domination. Belle Gallantey broke alertly from post seven. She had opening fractions of :24.18 and :47.51 and led early by two lengths.

Rudy Rodriguez, trainer of Belle Gallantey, spoke of the mare, "I told Jose, 'You've got the outside and you've got the option to see what everyone else is doing, so take it from there. If they leave you alone, take it.' I think she's a pretty versatile filly where she can sit and come from behind. When they left them alone and they went in :24.18, I was very happy. She's a very nice filly and she show it today."

All-in-all, Super Saturday had really good races but I think it was lacking something. Perhaps if so many horses hadn't retired it would have been more action packed but I can't change that now. Congratulations to all of the horses that won yesterday.

Until next time,

Madison

Jockey Club Gold Cup 2014

Last Gunfighter wins the Pimlico Special.

Last Gunfighter (First Samurai-Saratoga Cat) is the one of the older horses in the field. In his last start he came 6th. The horse has won the Excelsior Stakes (1 1/8 mile). Pimlico Special Stakes (1 3/16 mile), Philip H. Iselin Stakes (1 1/8 mile), Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap (1 1/4 mile). He is by First Samurai, winner of the Hopeful Stakes (7 furlongs), Champagne Stakes (1 mile) and the Fountain of Youth (1 1/8 mile). He came 3rd in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (1 1/16 mile). Giant's Causeway, sire of First Samurai, won 'Weight For Age Stakes' races overseas before coming 2nd to two-time winner, Tiznow. Freddie Frisson, dam of Last Gunfighter, was 7-for-24. She was by Dixieland Band, winner of the 1983 Pennsylvania Derby (1 1/8 mile). He also won the Massachusetts Handicap (1 1/8 mile). I do like Last Gunfighter's Chances here and the payout might be pretty.

Prayer for Relief (Jump Start-Sparklin Lil) won mainly at 1 1/8 mile and 1 1/16 mile with his maiden coming at 6 furlongs. In the Pimlico Special, he beat rival Moreno with his 2nd place. Sired by Jump Start, who won at distances of 5 1/2 furlongs to 6 1/2 furlongs. He came 11th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and 2nd in the Champagne Stakes. A.P. Indy, grandsire of Prayer for Relief, went unbeaten for seven starts before coming 5th in the Molson Export Million Stakes (1 1/8 mile). The colt won the 1992 Belmont Stakes and the 1992 Breeders' Cup Classic. Sparklin Lil, dam of Prayer for Relief, won between 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 mile and 70 yards. She was sired by Mr. Sparkles, who was stakes placed. All-in-all this isn't my favorite horse but he has stamina on his sire's side.

Zivo wins the Suburban Handicap.

Zivo (True Direction-American Skipper) is an obvious threat to this race. The only time he finished worst than third was in the Woodward Stakes, which also happened to be his first attempt at the grade one level. His sire wasn't the best of racers and neither was his dam but I can't wait to see what Zivo does in this grade one.

The Jim Dandy winner Wicked Strong (Hard Spun-Moyne Abbey) will be joining the field. He will wear his blinkers again. His latest win was the Jim Dandy (1 1/8 mile) over Tonalist and Kid Cruz. During the Triple Crown he managed a fourth in the Derby (1 1/4 mile) and the Belmont (1 1/2 mile). He won the Wood Memorial (1 1/8 mile) and came ninth in the Holy Bull Stakes (1 1/16 mile). He is sired by Hard Spun. He was three for three as a two-year old. He won the LeComte Stakes (1 mile),  Lane's End Stakes (1 1/8 mile), King's Bishop (7 furlongs) and the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes (1 1/8 mile). His other accomplishments include a 2nd in the Kentucky Derby (1 1/4 mile), 3rd in the Preakness (1 3/16 mile), 4th in the Belmont Stakes (1 1/2 mile), 1st in the Haskell Invitational (1 1/8 mile) and a 2nd in the Breeders' Cup Classic (1 1/4 mile), beating Derby winner Street Sense but losing to Preakness winner Curlin. Hard Spun is a very talented stallion who could win at distances between six to nine furlongs. He is sired by the three-for-three sire, Danzig. Wicked Strong's dam only won her maiden (1 1/16 mile) race out of twelve starts. Wicked Strong proved he has the pedigree and that he can compete with these horses.

As of now I still believe Tonalist (Tapit-Settling Mist) is a fluke and luck has just been on his side but if he can win this one I'll be on his side again. He won the Peter Pan (1 1/8 mile) and the Belmont (1 1/2 mile) before managing a 2nd in the Jim Dandy (1 1/8 mile). He is by Tapit, out of Settling Mist. Tapit won the Laurel Futurity (1 1/16 mile) and the Wood Memorial (1 1/8 mile). He came ninth in the Kentucky Derby and the Pennsylvania Derby (1 1/8 mile). The grandson of Seattle Slew, Pulpit is the grandsire of Tonalist. He, like Tapit, won the Fountain of Youth, came second in the Florida Derby, won the Toyota Blue Grass (1 1/8 mile) and 4th came in the Kentucky Derby. Settling Mist won one out of nineteen races. Tonalist for sure has the pedigree but will his luck wash away?

V.E. Day (blue silks) scores a narrow victory over
Wicked Strong in the Travers Stakes.

V.E. Day (English Channel-California Sunset) just won his first graded stakes. He started five times; his worst placing was a fifth in a maiden. He won his maiden (1 mile) five months into the year. In July V.E. Day won an allowance (1 1/8 mile) before winning the Curlin Stakes (1 1/8 mile), beating Charge Now and Viva Majorca. English Channel won the Virginia Derby (1 1/4 mile), Canadian Turf Handicap (1 1/16 mile), Woodford Turf Classic (1 1/8 mile), United Nations Stakes (1 3/8 mile), and the Breeder's Cup Turf (1 1/2 mile). California Sunset is unstarted. She is by Deputy Minister, the 2-Year Old Eclipse Award winner. V.E. Day has the pedigree but I'm a little worried about a slow pace working against him.

Moreno (Ghostzapper-Danceinthesunlight) has an exciting pedigree that includes multiple G1 winner Ghostzapper and Belmont winner A.P. Indy. Danceinthesunlight never raced, but Moreno certainly has, having won only 3 of his 20 starts. However two of those were the Dwyer (G2) and the Whitney (G1). While Moreno is a hard knocking horse, I think he got off on an easy lead in the Whitney. Because I know he has the real speed to use if needed, I'm counting him in as a contender.

His last win was in 2012 so I'll take a stab in the dark and say that Stephanoatsee (A.P. Indy-Oatsee) is a major pretender. Micromanage (Medaglia d'Oro-Catnip) would be a dark horse for me due to the fact that his last time going head to head with grade one company was third. Speak Logistics' (High Cotton-Miss Sabrina) last win was an Allowance Optional Claiming on November 1st, 2013. Long River (A.P. Indy-Round Pond) hasn't won anything since January so I'm going to toss him. For Big Cazanova (Giant's Causeway-Gem Bob) all I have to say is bye, bye!

Contenders-

-Moreno

-Last Gunfighter

-Prayer for Relief

-Tonalist

-Wicked Strong

-V.E. Day

-Zivo

Pretenders-

-Long River

-Big Cazanova

-Stephanoatsee

-Speak Logistics

-Mircomanage

Good luck guys!

Madison

Pennsylvania Derby 2014

The long, anticipated wait of the 2014 Derby and Preakness winner, California Chrome, is finally upon us and he shoould be given a run for his money. The year has a small, but tough field.

Bayern (Offlee Wild-Alittlebitearly) showed he wasn't just a sprinter with his wire to wire Haskell win but he showed he can't take a classic distance as he showed in the Travers. Offlee Wild won the Holy Bull Stakes (1 1/16 mile). But didn't have much luck in grade one races, not winning for another year. His first grade one victory came in 2004 when he beat Funny Cide in the Massachusettes Handicap. He was challenged by four other horses in the Breeders' Cup Handicap. During his final win Offlee Wild, once again, beat Funny Cide in the Suburban Handicap. Offlee Wild is by the Icecapade stallion, Wild Again. He won the Breeders' Cup Classic (1 1/4th mile). Alittlebitearly was unraced. Yes, Bayern has proved himself. Yes, he is an amazing racer. But will Chrome catch him in his final strides?

Since finishing 15th in the Kentucky Derby, Tapiture (Tapit-Free Spin) has been the clear winner of his past two races, the Matt Winn Stakes (1 1/16 mile) and the West Virginia Derby (1 1/8 mile). He has yet to win any of his grade one starts but he has proven to be consistent at the grade two level. Tapit won the Laurel Futurity (1 1/16 mile) and the Wood Memorial (1 1/8 mile). He came ninth in the Kentucky Derby and the Pennsylvania Derby (1 1/8 mile). The grandson of Seattle Slew, Pulpit is the grandsire of Tonalist. He, like Tapit, won the Fountain of Youth, came second in the Florida Derby, won the Toyota Blue Grass (1 1/8 mile) and 4th came in the Kentucky Derby. Free Spin has only won at 6 and 6 1/2 furlongs. Tapiture did well in the WV Derby but last time out against Chrome he came fifteenth.

Candy Boy (Candy Ride-She's an Eleven) came second in both of his last races, losing the West Virginia Derby to Tapiture.  Other than his maiden, his only win was the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (1 1/16 mile). Candy Ride raced in Argentina for half of his races and then won the American Handicap (1 1/8 mile) and the Pacific Classic (1 1/4 mile). Candy Ride raced in Argentina for half of his races and then won the American Handicap (1 1/8 mile) and the Pacific Classic (1 1/4 mile). He went six-for-six and concluded his racing career in 2003. She's An Eleven broke her maiden before wining the Melair Stakes (1 1/16 mile). She came fifth in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (1 1/8 mile), fourht in the Hollywood Breeders' Cup Oaks (1 1/16 mile) and sixth in the Lady's Secret Stakes (1 1/16). Candy Boy may not win and it'd be something special if he did but he can be a threat in the the top four.

Protonico (Giant's Causeway-Alpha Sprint) won the Smarty Jones Stakes (1 mile 70 yds) and came third in the Curlin Stakes (1 1/8 mile). Giant's Causeway won eleven Weight for Age Stakes and came second in the Breeder's Cup Classic. Alpha Sprint never won. I'll put Protonico to the side for now. So I feel bad turning down a Michigan-bred because they never win anything but Nobel Moon (Comet Moon-Mambo Bell) has never placed better than fourth and he has yet to start in a black-type or graded stakes. Classic Giacnroll (Giacomo-Classic Women) may be begging for a break soon. He raced less that eighteen days ago. While he is graded stakes placed I'm going to close the door on him. C J's Awesome (Awesome Again- C J's Leelee) will be tossed as well.

Now that we've gotten those horses out of the way, let's look at the even-money favorite and the reason Parx Racing will be so packed. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit-Love the Chase). He needs little to no introduction but the son of Lucky Pulpit won the Graduation Stakes, King Clorious Stakes, California Cup Derby, San Felipe Stakes, Santa Anita Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes before dead heating for 4th in the Belmont Stakes.  Lucky Pulpit never won a graded stakes but placed two of them. Love the Chase won a maiden claiming on her fourth attempt. So if Chrome can get a perfect start, not get in too much traffic and not get injured it's pretty clear who the winner is.

Contenders

-Candy Boy

-California Chrome

-Tapiture

-Bayern

Pretenders
-Protonico

-Nobel Moon

-Classic Giacnroll

-C J's Awesome

Good luck this weekend to all of those

who are betting,

Madison